—- As West African military chiefs Gear up for Possible Invasion
IPNEWS: It’s been more than three weeks since the military coup in Niger forced out former President Mohamed Bazoum, with Ecowas leaders joined by America and France condemning the military takeover, however, it is becoming clear of creeping division among some members of the international community, especially Western allies.
While former colonial master France remains steadfastly opposed to the new regime in Niamey, yet another Western powerhouse -Russia, predictably, sees the coup as a chance to boost its influence, with everyone else somewhere in between.
France immediately condemned the coup, and let it be known that it might support African armed action to reinstate Mohamed Bazoum as president.
But Niger’s neighbours, who would most likely take charge of military intervention, let their own ultimatum addressed to the new regime pass without sending in troops.
West African military chiefs started a two-day meeting in Ghana on Thursday to discuss a possible armed intervention after the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) agreed to activate a “standby force to restore constitutional order” in Niger, but did not say when, or even whether, it would be used.
‘Calamitous consequences’
One ECOWAS member, Cape Verde, has come out strongly against the use of force, with President Jose Maria Neves saying efforts to restore constitutional order should not “under any circumstances include military intervention or armed conflict”.
A view shared by Solomon Dersso, managing director at the Amani Africa research group, who said the armed intervention could trigger “calamitous consequences”, including the entire region being engulfed in war.
Instead of acting as a deterrent, sanctions and the threat of military action had given the new government in Niamey ammunition to stir nationalist sentiment among Nigeriens “and ride on their anti-neo-colonial sentiments”, Dersso wrote.
Analysts said military action would need support from the African Union, a pan-African body, which has been silent since meeting on the Niger question on Monday, a sign of internal divisions.
Mali and Burkina Faso, where military governments took over in coups in recent years, have expressed their support for the new government in Niamey.
‘Confused, muddled’
Subtle but important differences have meanwhile emerged between the two Western powers most involved in Niger, the United States and France.
Washington keeps a permanent force of 1,100 soldiers in Niger to fight jihadists linked to Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group, and “we don’t want to see that partnership go”, said Sabrina Singh, a spokeswoman for the Defense Department in Washington.
“We have invested hundreds of millions of dollars into bases there, trained with the military there, we really want to see a peaceful resolution,” Singh said.
Officially, it is US policy to abstain from military cooperation with governments coming to power through a coup.
“But that’s a flexible definition,” said Colin Clarke, director of research at the Soufan Group consultancy, pointing to Washington’s continued cooperation with Egyptian general Abdel Fattah al-Sisi who in 2014 took power after a military coup he was involved in.
“The American position is confused, muddled,” Clarke told AFP.
France, which keeps 1,500 troops in Niger for the battle against jihadists with the help of local soldiers, has meanwhile stuck to its inflexible position towards the West African country’s new rulers.
President Emmanuel Macron’s government last week gave unconditional support to ECOWAS when the military option was still favoured by the organisation.
“Our position is to support ECOWAS,” a French diplomatic source told AFP.
“It is up to ECOWAS to take its decision, either in favour of sanctions or in favour of a military intervention threat,” the source said.
European Union heavyweight Germany on Thursday called on the EU to impose sanctions “against the putschists”.
‘Very transparent’
Analysts said Russia is a beneficiary of Western divisions, with the Wagner paramilitary group — loyal to Moscow despite cooler ties with the Kremlin since a short-lived rebellion in June — waiting in the wings.
Wagner is active in the Central African Republic, in Sudan, in Mali despite Bamako’s denials, and is looking for a role in Burkina Faso.
Niger, with its wealth of natural resources, looks an attractive target for the group.
“Wagner is very transparent about what they are there for,” Clarke said. “They are not going to lecture the regime on human rights. They are here to get access to resources and in return, they will provide political security.”
The Sahel region’s insurgents, meanwhile, continue to strike. On Tuesday 17 Niger soldiers were killed by suspected jihadists near the western border with Burkina Faso “in a terrorist ambush”, the defence ministry said. West African military chiefs met in Ghana on Thursday to discuss a possible armed intervention to reverse a coup in Niger, as Germany called for EU sanctions against the rebel leaders.
Alarmed by a series of military takeovers in the region, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has agreed to activate a “standby force to restore constitutional order” in Niger.
ECOWAS is demanding Niger’s coup leaders release President Mohamed Bazoum after his July 26 ouster, warning that the bloc could send in troops if negotiations fail.
“Democracy is what we stand for and it’s what we encourage,” Nigeria’s Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Gwabin Musa, told the meeting in Accra.
“The focus of our gathering is not simply to react to events, but to proactively chart a course that results in peace and promotes stability,” he said.
ECOWAS troops have intervened in other emergencies since 1990, including in wars in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Ivory Coast, Benin and Nigeria are expected to contribute troops, but little detail has emerged over a potential Niger operation.
Abdel-Fatau Musah, an ECOWAS commissioner for political affairs, peace and security, said the Accra meeting would “fine tune” details in case the bloc “were to resort to the ultimate means of force”.
The two-day meeting will conclude on Friday when the defense chiefs are expected to announce any next steps.
“The military junta in Niger is playing a cat-and-mouse game with ECOWAS,” Musah said. “They have flouted their own constitution and ECOWAS protocols. The military authorities in Niger appear to remain defiant.”
The generals who have detained Bazoum blamed deteriorating security in the country for the coup. They have threatened to charge him with treason, but also say they are open to negotiations.
Russia and the United States have urged a diplomatic solution to the crisis.
ECOWAS has already applied trade and financial sanctions while France, Germany and the United States have suspended aid programmes.
On Thursday, Germany’s foreign ministry said it wanted the EU to impose sanctions on the coup leaders, adding on social media that Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock had held talks with her French and US counterparts.
“Germany supports the regional efforts to resolve the crisis in Niger. Our goal is to restore the constitutional order,” the ministry said.
Sahel violence
The Accra meeting of top army commanders on Thursday and Friday came after fresh violence in Niger, with jihadists killing at least 17 soldiers in an ambush, the defense ministry said.
Twenty other soldiers were wounded, six seriously, in the heaviest losses since the July 26 coup, when the presidential guard ousted Bazoum and detained him and his family.
Jihadist insurgencies have gripped Africa’s Sahel region for more than a decade, breaking out in northern Mali in 2012 before spreading to neighbouring Niger and Burkina Faso in 2015.
The unrest across the region has killed thousands of troops, police officers and civilians, and forced millions to flee their homes.
Anger at the bloodshed has also fuelled military coups in Mali and Burkina Faso since 2020, with Niger the latest to fall.
Analysts say any ECOWAS intervention against Niger’s coup leaders would be militarily and politically risky, and the bloc has said it prefers a diplomatic outcome.
Talks have taken place this week in Addis Ababa among ECOWAS and Niger representatives under the aegis of the African Union.
The United States said Wednesday that a new ambassador would soon head to Niger to help lead diplomacy aimed at reversing the coup.
UN food warning
Bazoum’s election in 2021 was a landmark in Niger’s history, ushering in its first peaceful transfer of power since independence from France in 1960.
He survived two attempted coups before being toppled in the country’s fifth military takeover.
Niger remains one of the poorest countries in the world, regularly ranking at the bottom of the UN’s Human Development Index.
The United Nations warned Wednesday that the crisis could significantly worsen food insecurity in the impoverished country, urging humanitarian exemptions to sanctions and border closures to avert catastrophe.
Niger is also facing a jihadist insurgency in its southeast from militants crossing from Nigeria — the cradle of a campaign initiated by Boko Haram in 2010.
