Aloysius Uche Ordu, Senior Fellow and Director, Africa Growth Initiative

The Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not only having a toil on lives and properties in that part of the world, but its rippling effects are being felt on the global economy, according to Foresight Africa.

“Our World has changed remarkably since we launched the previous edition of Foresight Africa in January 2022. Russia invaded Ukraine-an unanticipated event that roiled the global economy and sent food, fuel and fertilizer prices sky high,” says Aloysius Uche Ordu, Senior Fellow and Director, Africa Growth Initiative, Global Economy and Development, Bookings Institution.

In his ‘Letter from the Director,’ Senior Fellow Ordu observed that sanctions on Russia have resulted in trade and logistical bottlenecks, which he said added more pressure on already strained supply chains.

He noted the U.S. Federal Reserve and other major central banks’ unrelenting efforts to tame inflation have ushered in a new era of high interest rates and aggravated several countries’ ability to settle their international financial obligations.

Director Ordu said the uneven recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic continues to feature in headlines across Africa and elsewhere.

“The combination of fragility in parts of the African continent and adverse weather conditions has dampened economic growth in the region in 2022,” the Senior Fellow and Foresight Africa Director also noted, adding that with these external and internal headwinds, it is easy to be pessimistic about Africa’s prospects.

Director and Senior Fellow, Ordu, said as it has been seen in the case of the Ebola crisis, HIV/AIDS crisis and now the Covid-19 pandemic, Africa has proven resilient.

“We must be conscious of the danger of a single story, especially as many African Countries will continue to fare well, despite the odds. 

Indeed, even though the Region is unlikely to be fully out of the woods in 2023, the Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts overall growth of 3.2 percent point one,” Foresight Africa Director, Aloysius Uche Ordu, wrote. According to the Foresight Africa Director, Medium sized economies, such as Senegal, Cote d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo and Kenya, will drive much of this growth with predicted growth rates of 5 to 7 percent the year ahead. He however observed that the Region’s economic powerhouses, South Africa, Nigeria and Egypt are expected to record slower growth.

“Going into 2023, we see renewed solidarity and collaboration emerging across Africa to address the confluence of crises. I and the Africa Growth Initiative team are therefore excited to feature Africa’s newfound solidarity on this year’s cover of Africa Foresight,” Director Aloysius Uche Ordu noted.